Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.017114 0.019371 0.021817 0.024664 0.027888 0.031427 0.035609
2025-09-07 0.013708 0.016854 0.020553 0.025228 0.030985 0.037848 0.046665
2025-09-14 0.011234 0.014611 0.018813 0.024429 0.031750 0.040990 0.053563
2025-09-21 0.009675 0.013177 0.017736 0.024117 0.032836 0.044362 0.060808
2025-09-28 0.008335 0.011811 0.016521 0.023379 0.033138 0.046570 0.066540
2025-10-05 0.007788 0.011439 0.016564 0.024300 0.035720 0.052023 0.077180
2025-10-12 0.007234 0.010978 0.016406 0.024873 0.037799 0.056875 0.087334
2025-10-19 0.006779 0.010603 0.016317 0.025504 0.039971 0.061995 0.098292
2025-10-26 0.006200 0.009972 0.015770 0.025357 0.040900 0.065252 0.106592
2025-11-02 0.005730 0.009464 0.015355 0.025362 0.042033 0.068874 0.115730
2025-11-09 0.005224 0.008846 0.014704 0.024907 0.042351 0.071169 0.122825
2025-11-16 0.004923 0.008538 0.014525 0.025210 0.043937 0.075651 0.133965
2025-11-23 0.004552 0.008085 0.014078 0.025035 0.044720 0.078892 0.143348
2025-11-30 0.004341 0.007894 0.014062 0.025610 0.046872 0.084690 0.157837
2025-12-07 0.003935 0.007315 0.013314 0.024798 0.046435 0.085816 0.163814
2025-12-14 0.003644 0.006920 0.012861 0.024482 0.046869 0.088534 0.172975
2025-12-21 0.003323 0.006440 0.012209 0.023732 0.046410 0.089526 0.178860
2025-12-28 0.003249 0.006427 0.012429 0.024668 0.049274 0.097067 0.198302
2026-01-04 0.003135 0.006325 0.012469 0.025250 0.051481 0.103492 0.216037
2026-01-11 0.003036 0.006242 0.012537 0.025890 0.053851 0.110417 0.235396
2026-01-18 0.002857 0.005983 0.012233 0.025742 0.054578 0.114052 0.248109
2026-01-25 0.002708 0.005773 0.012013 0.025746 0.055620 0.118410 0.262739
2026-02-01 0.002525 0.005477 0.011590 0.025284 0.055621 0.120557 0.272674